Good morning,
Today is a relatively quiet day for the markets in terms of economic data. In Europe today’s main release is the German ZEW survey. Markets are expecting the German investor survey to drop in August in line with market expectations but may present a buying euros situation . In the US we have second tier releases including the NFIB small business optimism survey.
This weeks economic forecasts from the Bank of England are shaping up to be decisive for the markets. The pound has pushed slightly higher from yesterdays low of 1.2517 as investors prepare for clues from projections due in the central banks Inflation report as to when it will begin raising interest rates. The Bank of England inflation report is due tomorrow along with the labour market report.
The euro has dropped off against both the US Dollar exchange rates (lowest since November) and Pound ahead of today’s German data as markets expect a drop in confidence. There are some concerns that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will have a negative impact on Europe’s economies, said one chief economist. Should markets see evidence of this from the GDP data (due on Thursday), then the euro will be vulnerable to selling pressure.
Other key US surveys out this week include the Empire manufacturing and University of Michigan consumer sentiment surveys.
MORNING MARKET RATES:
GBPEUR 1.2553
GBPUSD 1.6769
EURUSD 1.3357
GBPSEK 11.540
GBPAED 6.1598
GBPAUD 1.8098
EURGBP 1.2573
GBPJPY 171.50
GBPCHF 1.5233