Teresa May gives the pound some certainty

UK News

Finally there is some signs up good news for the pound as Theresa May looks as if she is going to be the new Prime Minister in the UK. With this said, the pound has rallied acorss the board over night against both the euro and the US Dollar. Today’s releases come with high significance to the markets as we see the Publishment Record of FPC meeting and following this Govenor Mark Carney speaks about the financial stability in parliament. Carney is set to be answering questions regarding the financial stability although no doubt will he be asked questions on potential monetary policy measures, which you would expect him to ignore.

US News

US Fed speakers continue today. Yesterday the Fed’s George warned about keeping interest rates too low in the US.

EU News

A Quiet day in the Eurozone with very little to talk about.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR  1.1810
GBPUSD  1.3125
EURUSD  1.1110

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A quiet day ahead of Thursdays MPC meeting

UK News

Thursdays Bank of England MPC meeting is going to be heavily scrutinized as BoE governor Mark Carney has already mentioned that headline interest rate are going to be cut in either this week’s meeting or next months meeting. Any further talks of this will almost certainly see the pound fall across the board. If we do actually see a cut in Thursdays MPC meeting, the rates could fall by around 5%. The probability of a rate cut from the OIS curve has increased over the weekend and there is now a 77% chance that we will see a rate cut in Thursdays meeting by a quarter point.

US News

A Quiet start to the week with only the US Labor Market Conditions Index Change scheduled for today.

EU News

The eurogroup of finance ministers meet today and topics for discussion include the impact of the UK referendum result and the european commission’s call for sanctions against Spain and Portugal for braching budget deficit limits.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR 1.1700
GBPUSD 1.2900
EURUSD 1.1025

Talks of a rate cut in the UK could see the pound fall further

US News

May’s Non-farm payrolls figures were incredibly disappointing coming in at 38k. Today we expect to see a slightly stronger reading of 180k. Yesterday’s ADPreport showed a rise in the private sector employment to 172k which normally sets up a relatively good release in the non-farms. If they come out as expected, we are more than likely going to see the dollar gain significantly throughout the course of the day and over the weekend.

UK News

The UK release the external trade date an Q1 unit labour costs, which are both unlikely to gain too much market attention. Next weeks Bank of England monetary policy decision will spark significant interest as he has mentioned if we don’t see a rate cut this month, we will do next. A OIS Curve on Bloomberg suggests that markets are already pricing in a 74% chance of a quarter-point rate cut to 0.25% and 26% chance of no change. An article in the newspaper yesterday said that we could see GBPUSD at parity if we see a rate cut in the UK.

EU News

German figures fall for a third day as exports and imports fall.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR  1.1680
GBPUSD  1.2940
EURUSD  1.1080

Sterling turns into sinking ship…

US News

Signs of support for safe-havens continued last night, including things like Japanese Yen and Gold. Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for this afternoon, this will give us a rough idea of what to expect in tomorrow’s more significant non-farm payrolls.

UK News

UK Industrial and Manufacturing production are both set to decline in today’s figure releases, which after what has happened so far in the second half of the calendar year, doesn’t si well for the pound. At the moment the pound is like a sinking ship, it is gradually geting worse and worse to a point of no return, for now anyway….

EU News

German figures fall for the second day in a row as the Industrial production fall below 0% from 0.5% – the biggest fall in almost 2 years

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR  1.1695
GBPUSD  1.2955
EURUSD  1.1075

Dooms day turning into dooms week for the pound… Can it get much worse?

US News

The US joins the game again today with the ISM Non-Manufacturing figures. We do expect to see a small increase from 52.9 to 53.3and after the dollar hits its highest point against the pound since 1985, any positive key releases ill surly drive it further. Friday’s Non-farm payrolls in the US will be closely watched following on from last month’s weak release of 38k. 180k jobs are set to have been added in this months non-farms which once again is likely to drive the dollar.

UK News

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made it clear that we have been impacted by the referendum result which was decided by the public. He said in his press conference yesterday that the UK ‘is entering a period of uncertainty and significant economic adjustment’ – the pound hit lows as the Asian market opened last night of GBPEUR 1.1585 and GBPUSD 1.2775

European News

German Retail PMI declined this morning but the pound couldn’t find the strength it needed to rally.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR1.1705
GBPUSD 1.2945
EURUSD 1.1060

Pound falls further after referendum to leave the EU

US News

A relatively quiet start to the week with a public holiday in the US for independence day.

UK News

The Construction PMI fell this month in the UK from 51.2 to 46.0. Anything close to 50.0 is a relatively positive release – todays was set to drop slightly but not as much as we have seen. Tomorrow, Mark Carney publishes the Bank of England financial Stability Report which will be closely watched to see if there is anything in the markets to signal towards them having to restart their QE programme due to leaving the EU.

EU News

In the Eurozone this morning, producer price index is set to be released and we do expect to see a slight increase in may from April although it is set to be down on the release of this time last year.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR 1.1935
GBPUSD 1.3265
EURUSD 1.1110

 

Markets fall as banks call for further margins on positions

UK News

Heads turn to the Bank of England rate decision today at 12 and is unlikely that there will be a change in policy. From the recent UK data we have seen, this comes to no surprise. UK retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% following on from the 1.3% increase back in April. Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, and Chancellor George Osbourne will give their annual Mansion House speeches.

US News

Over night, both the FOMC and the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged as expected. The median dot plot for the FOMC showed that they still expect to increase the rates two times this year, which meant we still saw a lot of market movement baring in mind the releases were in line with the expectations. Having said that, 6 out of the 17 FOMC members now think that there will only be one rate hike in the US this year as a pose to 1 out of 17 members previously.

EU News

In the Eurozone this morning, the CPI for may is scheduled to be released where no change is expected. The US CPI follows this and once again we don’t expect to see any change in the annual CPI but CPI excluding food and energy is expected to pop up slightly by 0.1%. The dollar is likely to continue to strengthen on the back of this.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR 1.2700
GBPUSD 1.4300
EURUSD 1.1250

 

Sterling falls across the board

GBP News

A quiet start to the week across the board in terms of economic data, although picks up rather quickly in tomorrow’s UK CPI and US retail sales data. This morning, the pound has fallen by around one pc against both the euro and the US Dollar. Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index in the UK is set to have an upward revision compared to last month, coming in at 1.3%, where hopefully the pound can recover some of the lost points this morning.

US News

No significant releases from the US today, but tomorrow’s Retail sales will be closely watched to see if there are signs that the US economy is continuing to rise. The Key US data this week comes on Wednesday where the FOMC discuss rates, it looks as if they are going to leave rates unchanged this month. Janet Yellen will follow this and give her impressions on the risks to the economic policy outlook.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR 1.2600
GBPUSD 1.4200
EURUSD 1.1270

UK referendum continues to hold the pound hostage

UK News

Another quiet day in the UK today with only the Trade Balance figures scheduled to be released. A slight increased is expected to be seen and hopefully the pound will rise slightly across the board after the fall this morning, on the back of no UK data. The weight of the referendum is beginning to show as 2 weeks today the final decision will be made.

The weekend before last, it looked very likely that we were going to stay within the EU and no questions were asked as to why this was the case. This weekend was a different story as the vote had a large swing and we now sit in a position where a leave vote looks more likely than it has done before.

EU News

German Imports and Exports were released this morning and the euro gained slightly against the pound. The Greek’s are set to payback their debt in the same weekend that the referendum is going to be decided. This actually looks as if it may be completed over looked due to the talks and markets concentrating solely on the UK referendum.

US and world News

A quiet day in the US today. Last night the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept their rates unchanged at 2.25%. There were talks that these rates were going to be cut by 0.5%BP, but the decision was made that they would remain the same.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR 1.2705
GBPUSD 1.4465
EURUSD 1.1380

Markets settle after ‘fat fingers’ mistake

UK News

In the UK this morning, Aprils industrial production figures, along with the external trade and construction out put data later on in the week, will provide us with the first of the hard data outlook for Q2. It looks as if there could be a slight drop in the growth due to the slower than expected manufacturing survey PMI back in April. With this expected, it is likely that the industrial sector as a whole, may underperform this quarter.

EU and world News

A relatively quiet day in the Eurozone today. The main data comes later this evening when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are set to speak about interest rates. There were talks that the RBNZ would cut rates to 1.75% although now look as if they are going to leave them unchanged.

US News

In the US today we have the JOLTS report which usually doesn’t get too much market attention due to the figures being a month behind the non-farm payrolls, although this month may be slightly different following on from Friday’s unexpected drop in the non-farms.

Morning Market Rates

GBPEUR 1.2775
GBPUSD 1.4520
EURUSD 1.1375