by Damian -
The US dollar has started this month strongly and the FOMC minutes supported this notion. Comments from the FOMC support the idea that the US will have to hike interest rates shortly – but in the current climate shortly can be a while! Whilst news supports the idea that Europe is very sick and global tensions we expect further gains for the US Dollar.
The pound exchange rate is operating a two steps forward three steps back policy. The news from the Bank of England minutes supported the idea that we are going to hike rates sooner rather than later as the vote was 7-2 the first time we had dissenters in Carney’s reign as Governor. This should have sent the pound to 1.2600 today with the help of retail sales – but as normal Retail Sales figures disappointed the foreign exchange market and the pound was sold off.
Why is the Euro exchange rate so high – the news from Europe is terrible but forex traders continue to Buy Euros in the hope Super Mario will save the day!. Suggest that Forex Traders read the story covered in today’ Telegraph – it highlights that the Euro Zone is heading for a Depression – not a simple recession as policy makers would have you believe. Spain, France, Portugal and Italy are destitute and with rising youth unemployment without stimuls will only get worse. Germany is beggaring thou neighbor and not seeming to care. In my opinion the Euro Zone is like watching a car crash in slow motion – you know it is going to happen but nothing you can do about it.