With all the talk this weekend focused on the future of the UK the data calendar today is light. The only data releases of any note are in the US with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September and Industrial production for August due this afternoon. Most US data of late has pointed to a recovering economy and markets expect today’s data to follow suit.
The talk this weekend was whether Scotland would remain part of the UK as the Independence Referendum dominates the markets (due Thursday). All over the news we have seen that Activists were out in force across Scotland during the final weekend before the Sept 18 ballot. With opinion polls showing contradictory findings, both “yes” and “no” campaigns said they were poised to win, introducing further uncertainty to financial markets fixed on Scotland.
As it stands the pound euro has remained in the 1.25s since last Thursday having had a slight blip last Wednesday falling into the 1.24s for the first time since the end of June. I would expect to see some volatility between now and Thursday as we near the results.
Also this week domestically we have the latest CPI, labour market and retail sales reports all due, as well the August MPC minutes. Internationally, the focus will be on two main events: the US FOMC meeting (Wednesday) and a ECB liquidity operation (Thursday).
MORNING Foreign Exchange Rates:
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