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US Retail Sales will be key today as the US economy continues its upwards momentum

US Retail Sales will be key today as the US economy continues its upwards momentum.

US Dollar exchange rate

In the US today the August retail sales data will give the latest reading on the strength of the US economy in Q3.  While most US data has surprised on the upside, July retail sales were disappointing. They failed to match the stronger spending signals given by recent reports of high street spending and auto sales.

Pound Exchange rates

Domestically today we have the construction output figures for the UK. After four consecutive quarters of growth, the recovery in the UK construction stalled in Q2. Markets still appear to be unsure as to why this happened but are predicting output to be up 0.6%, signalling a strong start to Q3.

An interesting read reported earlier that the pound already suffering its worst month in more than a year, has the potential to tumble 10 percent should the Scots vote for independence from the UK, according to economists surveyed on Bloomberg. They say a victory by Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s Yes campaign would mean a 5 percent¬† to 10 percent slide within a month. Sterling is already down 5.5 percent from a five year high in July, and touched its lowest level in 10 months this week as momentum for the separatists increased.

The result of the Sept 18 vote is on a knife edge, with a YouGov Plc poll released yesterday putting support for the Yes campaign at 48 percent versus 52 percent for those wanting to keep the 307-year-old union.

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In Europe, July industrial production is scheduled today. It is likely to show a strong rebound after proving short over the last two months. Early released data today showed that Germany  posted a rise of 1.9% and French output also grew. These figures are Euro positive and an indication for euro growth although with the positive news primarily in Germany, it suggests that growth across the euro area may be diverging.

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