by Damian -
Pound Rallies following latest results from an independent poll on Scottish referendum
In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 6th are expected to show a decline to 295k from 302k previously. Today’s claims data will be looked at for signs that’s last weeks weaker than expected payroll data was just a blip.
Pound Exchange Rates
What a difference a day can make! The pound fell to its lowest level yesterday falling below the 1.2400 mark. It then pushed up to 1.25 before moving up to 1.2550 overnight. This happened after an opinion poll showed fading support for Scotland’s bid for independence from the UK.
Sterling climbed versus all of its 31 major peers after a poll by Survation for the Daily Record newspaper in Glasgow put the ‘no’ lead for the September 18 referendum on Scottish independence at six percentage points when excluding undecided voters. It found 47 percent support for the ‘yes’ campaign and 53 percent against independence.
The results followed a survey by YouGov Plc last weekend that put the yes-vote side ahead for the first time, a swing that sent the pound tumbling.
Today’s economic calendar is relatively light in terms of data. This morning we have had the inflation readings for both France and Germany although not having any real affect on the euro rate.
Having taken some timeout yesterday afternoon to have a look at Bloomberg I came across this little article that may be of some interest. Barclays PLC lowered its one-year euro forecast to the most bearish of Wall Street banks as the currency unions economy deteriorates and as increasingly aggressive monetary policy signals further depreciation. They say the euro will weaken to $1.27 in a month , to $1.22 in three months and $1.10 in a year.