by Damian -
Today is the US Non Farm Payroll day – the most exciting day of the month for most foreign exchange traders! We are seeing traders buying US dollars across the board before the numbers with the expectation for stronger numbers as the milder winter and the general consensus that the US Economy has turned a corner. This may put further pressures on the failing Japanese Yen as Japan faces a jump in corporate bankruptcies due to weaker yen.
The pound is trading sideways more than anything as there is no real news from the UK. The Bank of England checked all the boxes for no change at yesterdays policy meeting with no sign of a rate hike and they kept the Asset Purchase Program steady. We do expect to see strong retail sales growth to help the green shoots and especially the drop in fuel will help with transport costs – but until the election is done the Bank of England will sit on their hands in my belief.
Super Mario 2-0 Foreign Exchange Traders
Super Mario is the Man – I don’t know how he does it as the ECB is a three Ring Circus but he manages each month at their meeting to pull a rabbit out of his hat. Yesterday he managed to convince the FX world that he wont be done QE this month and that this was a good reason to be buying Euros! I am at a lost – you cant get a mortgage, your children cant get a job, you cant sell your house, Russia has tanks on its borders and the euro exchange rate goes up.
Winter better be mild as i cant see Russia playing nicely – can you?
Australias dollar weakened again yesterday. The fall in commodity prices is and the global brakes on growth are starting to have a very profound effect. Added to the Australian Dollar woes are that 2 of the largest Australian Banks WestPac and AMP has called for a rate cuts instead of rate hikes. Australian Housing prices will go to the moon!